Credible intervals

A credible interval contains a specified posterior probability under the Bayesian model.

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Bayesian inference
Prior and likelihood combine into a posterior distribution through Bayes' rule.
Likelihood
A likelihood treats observed data as fixed and parameters as varying.
Analysis of variance
ANOVA partitions variation to test mean differences under model assumptions.
Autocorrelation
Autocorrelation measures dependence between a process and its lagged values.
Bayes theorem
Bayes theorem relates conditional probabilities in opposite directions using prior probabilities and a nonzero evidence probability.