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How can the same equality be rearranged into both forms of Bayes' theorem?

Starting from the equality P(A)PP(A)P(B|A) = P(B)PP(B)P(A|B), you can solve for either conditional probability by dividing by the corresponding marginal probability. Dividing both sides by P(B)P(B) isolates P(A|B), giving P(A|B) = P(A)PP(A)P(B|A)/P(B). Dividing both sides by P(A)P(A) isolates P(B|A), giving P(B|A) = P(B)PP(B)P(A|B)/P(A).

Conditions

  • Both A and B have positive probability for the ordinary conditionals used here.
  • The algebraic rearrangement requires the denominators P(B)P(B) and P(A)P(A) to be nonzero.

Reasoning, step by step

  1. Write down the equality of the two joint-probability decompositions: P(A)PP(A)P(B|A) = P(B)PP(B)P(A|B).
  2. To find P(A|B), divide both sides of the equation by P(B)P(B).
  3. Simplify to get P(A|B) = P(A)PP(A)P(B|A)/P(B).
  4. To find P(B|A), divide both sides of the original equation by P(A)P(A).
  5. Simplify to get P(B|A) = P(B)PP(B)P(A|B)/P(A).

Example

The video displays the equality chain P(B)PP(B)P(A|B) = P(A and B) = P(A)PP(A)P(B|A), then rearranges it first to P(A|B) = P(A)PP(A)P(B|A)/P(B) and then to P(B)PP(B)P(A|B)/P(A) = P(B|A).

Common misconceptions

  • Overlooking the need for nonzero denominators in the rearranged formulas; the clip displays the divisions but does not explicitly state this condition aloud.

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