How is the model validated in this study?
The study validates the model using a 'hidden trial' method: it uses the 1989 land cover map to predict 1994, assesses the accuracy, and then iteratively manipulates the thresholds until the desired accuracy is met. This process is repeated across time slices (e.g., using 1994 actual to predict 1999).
Conditions
- Historical land cover maps are available for multiple years.
- The model requires calibration of transition thresholds.
Reasoning, step by step
- Use the base year (1989) land cover map to predict the next time step (1994).
- Compare the simulated 1994 map with the actual 1994 land cover map to assess accuracy.
- Adjust the model's transition thresholds based on the accuracy assessment.
- Repeat the prediction and adjustment process iteratively until desired accuracy is reached.
- Extend this calibration process to subsequent years (e.g., predict 1999 using 1994 actual data).
Example
The speaker describes the validation strategy: 'use the 1989 land cover map to predict 1994 and then performed accuracy assessment... manipulate the thresholds defined for the model and keep changing them until the desired accuracy is met.' The slide shows a multi-year comparison figure of Actual LULC and Simulated LULC.
Common misconceptions
- One might interpret the validation step as a one-time forecast check. In this clip, hidden trial is described as an iterative process of predicting, assessing accuracy, and adjusting thresholds repeatedly until the desired accuracy is reached.
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Answers are generated from source material and independently checked. Consult the original video or creator if something is unclear.