The conjunction fallacy manifests when individuals judge the probability of a combined event (being a bank teller AND active in the feminist movement) as higher than the probability of one of its constituent parts (being a bank teller). Mathematically, the second event is a subset of the first, so .
Conditions: Comparing the probability of a subset event against its superset event; Events are defined such that one is contained within the other
The conjunction fallacy manifests when individuals judge the probability of a combined event (being a bank teller AND active in the feminist movement) as higher than the probability of one of its constituent parts (being a bank teller). Mathematically, the second event is a subset of the first, so .
Conditions: Comparing the probability of a subset event against its superset event; Events are defined such that one is contained within the other