The risk-neutral probability p of the up move is computed using the formula p=u−d(1+r)−d. Given r=0.1, u=1.2, and d=0.9, the calculation is p=1.2−0.91.1−0.9=0.30.2=32.
Conditions: One-period binomial model with up factor u, down factor d, and interest rate r.; u>1+r>d to ensure 0<p<1.
The risk-neutral probability p of the up move is computed using the formula p=u−d(1+r)−d. Given r=0.1, u=1.2, and d=0.9, the calculation is p=1.2−0.91.1−0.9=0.30.2=32.
Conditions: One-period binomial model with up factor u, down factor d, and interest rate r.; u>1+r>d to ensure 0<p<1.
Risk-neutral probabilities are defined as the specific set of probabilities chosen precisely to make the discounted price process of any asset a martingale. They are not derived from historical data or investor beliefs, but from the mathematical requirement that discounted prices behave like fair games.
Conditions: Operating within a risk-neutral valuation framework.; Prices are discounted at the risk-free rate.
Risk-neutral probabilities are defined as the specific set of probabilities chosen precisely to make the discounted price process of any asset a martingale. They are not derived from historical data or investor beliefs, but from the mathematical requirement that discounted prices behave like fair games.
Conditions: Operating within a risk-neutral valuation framework.; Prices are discounted at the risk-free rate.