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Answers for “在这种预测方法中,alpha 和 1 减 alpha 代表什么?”

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The Year 3 forecast is calculated by applying the exponential smoothing formula to the Year 2 actual demand and the Year 2 forecast. The actual demand of 365 is weighted by α=0.4\alpha=0.4, and the previous forecast of 310 is weighted by (1−α)=0.6(1-\alpha)=0.6, yielding a new forecast of 332.

Conditions: The smoothing constant α\alpha is 0.4.; The actual demand for Year 2 (A2A_2) is 365.; The forecast for Year 2 (F2F_2) is 310.