The differenced series zt is defined as the difference between the next value of the original series and the current value. Mathematically, it is expressed as zt=qt+1−qt.
Conditions: The original series is indexed by time t.; The values represent observations at discrete time points (e.g., months).
The differenced series zt is defined as the difference between the next value of the original series and the current value. Mathematically, it is expressed as zt=qt+1−qt.
Conditions: The original series is indexed by time t.; The values represent observations at discrete time points (e.g., months).
You recover the original series qk by summing the predicted differences Zt and adding them to the last known actual value ql (or q1 depending on the starting index). The formula is qk=∑i=1k−lZk−i+ql.
Conditions: You have forecasts for the differenced series Zt.; You know the last observed value of the original series ql.; The relationship Zt=qt+1−qt holds.
You recover the original series qk by summing the predicted differences Zt and adding them to the last known actual value ql (or q1 depending on the starting index). The formula is qk=∑i=1k−lZk−i+ql.
Conditions: You have forecasts for the differenced series Zt.; You know the last observed value of the original series ql.; The relationship Zt=qt+1−qt holds.