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Answers for “如何计算预测值的均方误差(MSE)?”

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To calculate the next forecast, you use the weighted average form of the exponential smoothing formula: Ft+1=αAt+(1−α)FtF_{t+1} = \alpha A_t + (1 - \alpha)F_t. With a smoothing constant of α=0.2\alpha = 0.2, the formula becomes Ft+1=0.2(At)+0.8(Ft)F_{t+1} = 0.2(A_t) + 0.8(F_t).

Conditions: The smoothing constant is α=0.2\alpha = 0.2.; You know the actual sales value for the current period (AtA_t).; You know the forecast value for the current period (FtF_t).

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To calculate the Mean Squared Error (MSE), you first find the forecast errors by subtracting the forecast from the actual sales for each period. Next, you square each of these errors.

Conditions: You have calculated the forecasts for each period.; You have the actual sales data for each period.; Errors are not calculated for the first period if F1=A1F_1 = A_1.