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Answers for “如果没有先前的预测值,初始预测值的假设是什么?”

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To calculate the next forecast, you use the weighted average form of the exponential smoothing formula: Ft+1=αAt+(1−α)FtF_{t+1} = \alpha A_t + (1 - \alpha)F_t. With a smoothing constant of α=0.2\alpha = 0.2, the formula becomes Ft+1=0.2(At)+0.8(Ft)F_{t+1} = 0.2(A_t) + 0.8(F_t).

Conditions: The smoothing constant is α=0.2\alpha = 0.2.; You know the actual sales value for the current period (AtA_t).; You know the forecast value for the current period (FtF_t).