The video presents the single-parameter exponential smoothing update rule. The new forecast equals the prior forecast plus a fraction alpha of the prior forecast error, where the error is measured as actual minus forecast from the previous period.
Conditions: Used recursively over discrete time periods.; Requires a starting forecast value.; In the example, alpha is supplied as 0.2.
The video presents the single-parameter exponential smoothing update rule. The new forecast equals the prior forecast plus a fraction alpha of the prior forecast error, where the error is measured as actual minus forecast from the previous period.
Conditions: Used recursively over discrete time periods.; Requires a starting forecast value.; In the example, alpha is supplied as 0.2.
Alpha is defined in the video as the exponential smoothing constant. It multiplies the previous forecast error and determines the size of the adjustment added to the previous forecast.
Conditions: Treated as a given constant in the problem.; Held fixed across all periods in the example.
Alpha is defined in the video as the exponential smoothing constant. It multiplies the previous forecast error and determines the size of the adjustment added to the previous forecast.
Conditions: Treated as a given constant in the problem.; Held fixed across all periods in the example.
Within this clip, the setup is completed through the Week 2 formula and the recursion pattern for later weeks is explained; the numerical Week 11 forecast is not yet computed on screen.
Conditions: The clip ends after demonstrating the Week 2 formula entry.; The goal stated at the beginning is to find the Week 11 forecast.
Within this clip, the setup is completed through the Week 2 formula and the recursion pattern for later weeks is explained; the numerical Week 11 forecast is not yet computed on screen.
Conditions: The clip ends after demonstrating the Week 2 formula entry.; The goal stated at the beginning is to find the Week 11 forecast.
The chart legend distinguishes observed sales from model-generated forecasts by color. The blue line is Unit Sales and the red line is Forecast, so the visual effect of exponential smoothing can be seen as forecasts are added week by week.
Conditions: The chart is linked to the Excel table containing both actual and forecast columns.; Colors are assigned consistently in the legend.
The chart legend distinguishes observed sales from model-generated forecasts by color. The blue line is Unit Sales and the red line is Forecast, so the visual effect of exponential smoothing can be seen as forecasts are added week by week.
Conditions: The chart is linked to the Excel table containing both actual and forecast columns.; Colors are assigned consistently in the legend.