A single probability distribution, such as a bell curve, describes uncertainty at one instant but cannot capture temporal dynamics. Markets evolve continuously: returns arrive sequentially, volatility changes, and extreme events cluster.
Conditions: The system being modeled changes over time.; Returns, volatility, or event clustering exhibit temporal structure.
A single probability distribution, such as a bell curve, describes uncertainty at one instant but cannot capture temporal dynamics. Markets evolve continuously: returns arrive sequentially, volatility changes, and extreme events cluster.
Conditions: The system being modeled changes over time.; Returns, volatility, or event clustering exhibit temporal structure.