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Answers for “如何逐步计算指数平滑预测值?”

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To calculate exponential smoothing forecasts step-by-step, first initialize the first forecast equal to the first actual demand. Then, for each subsequent period, substitute the previous period's actual demand and previous forecast into the formula Ft+1=αAt+(1−α)FtF_{t+1} = \alpha A_t + (1-\alpha)F_t to compute the next forecast, repeating this recursive process until the target period is reached.

Conditions: The smoothing constant α\alpha is fixed across all periods.; An initial forecast F1F_1 is established from A1A_1.; Each new forecast depends only on the immediately preceding actual demand and forecast.

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In this forecasting method, α\alpha is the smoothing constant that determines the weight assigned to the most recent actual demand. The term (1−α)(1-\alpha) is the complementary weight applied to the previous forecast.

Conditions: α\alpha is fixed at 0.4 in the worked example.; (1−α)(1-\alpha) is calculated as 0.6.; The weights must sum to 1 for the formula to represent a valid weighted average.

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The Year 4 forecast is written as 357 because the instructor rounds the exact calculated value of 357.2 to the nearest whole number. Demand is treated as discrete units in this context, so fractional forecasts are rounded off before being recorded in the table.

Conditions: The raw calculated value for Year 4 is 357.2.; The instructor applies a rounding convention to record whole numbers in the table.; Demand is assumed to be measured in discrete units.