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Does conditional independence between two child nodes in a Bayesian network imply that they are also marginally independent?

No. Conditional independence does not imply marginal independence. In a common-parent model, the two child nodes are typically marginally dependent (correlated) because they share a common cause. They only become independent when we condition on (fix) the value of that common cause.

Conditions

  • The model has a common parent structure.
  • The child nodes are conditionally independent given the parent.

Reasoning, step by step

  1. Identify the marginal relationship between the children (ignoring the parent).
  2. Observe that they are correlated due to the shared parent.
  3. Identify the conditional relationship (given the parent).
  4. Observe that they are independent within each slice of the parent.
  5. Conclude that marginal dependence coexists with conditional independence.

Example

The script states: 'This does not imply marginal independence, nor does a graph alone establish real-world causation.'

Common misconceptions

  • Assuming that if two variables are independent in one context (conditional), they must be independent in all contexts (marginal).
  • Believing that a Bayesian network graph proves causality in the real world without further evidence.

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