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How do you calculate the joint probability P(AB) for drawing two defective items without replacement?

The joint probability P(AB) is the product of the probability of the first event and the conditional probability of the second event given the first. P(A)=4/20P(A) = 4/20. Given A, there are 3 defectives left out of 19 total, so P(B|A) = 3/193/19. Thus, P(AB) = (4/204/20) * (3/193/19).

Conditions

  • There are 20 items total, 4 defective.
  • Sampling is without replacement.
  • A is the event the first draw is defective.
  • B is the event the second draw is defective.

Reasoning, step by step

  1. Calculate P(A)P(A): probability of first draw being defective is 4/204/20.
  2. Calculate P(B|A): probability of second draw being defective given first was defective is 3/193/19.
  3. Multiply these probabilities to get P(AB): (4/204/20) * (3/193/19).

Example

The video writes P(AB) = 4/20×3/194/20 \times 3/19.

Common misconceptions

  • Assuming independence and calculating (4/204/20) * (4/204/20).
  • Forgetting to adjust the denominator for the second draw (using 20 instead of 19).

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