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How is the maximum likelihood estimate defined from a likelihood curve?

The maximum likelihood estimate is defined as the parameter value that corresponds to the peak (maximum) of the likelihood curve. It is the value of the parameter that gives the highest likelihood for the observed data.

Conditions

  • A likelihood function L(p)L(p) over candidate parameter values is available.
  • The data are fixed.

Reasoning, step by step

  1. Plot the likelihood function L(p)L(p) against the parameter pp.
  2. Trace the curve to find its highest point.
  3. Identify the parameter value at this peak.
  4. Conclude that this parameter value is the maximum likelihood estimate.

Example

The video animates a point sliding along the likelihood curve, stopping at the peak labeled p=0.70p = 0.70, and displays the result p^MLE=710=0.7\hat{p}_{\text{MLE}} = \frac{7}{10} = 0.7.

Common misconceptions

  • Assuming the maximum likelihood estimate is the average of all possible parameter values.
  • Thinking that the MLE guarantees the parameter is exactly the true value, rather than just the most plausible one given the data.

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