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What is the mean of the negative binomial distribution under the total-trials convention?

Under the total-trials convention, the mean number of trials needed to achieve r successes is r/pr/p.

Conditions

  • Using the total-trials convention (counting all trials).
  • Success probability p>0p > 0.

Reasoning, step by step

  1. Identify the convention: counting total trials until r successes.
  2. Apply the formula for the mean: r divided by p.

Example

With r=3r=3 and p=0.09p=0.09, the mean is 3/0.09=333/0.09 = 33⅓ trials.

Common misconceptions

  • Confusing the total-trials mean with the failures-only mean.
  • Thinking the mean is r∗pr*p.

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