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Answers for “如何从状态价格计算风险中性概率?”

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To derive the linear pricing equations, you impose the no-arbitrage condition that the current price of each traded asset must equal the sum of its state-contingent payoffs weighted by the corresponding state prices. This produces one linear equation per traded asset, with the state prices acting as the unknowns.

Conditions: One-period model with a finite set of states.; Prices of all traded assets are known today.; State-contingent payoffs for each asset are known.; The unknowns are the state prices (Arrow-Debreu security prices).

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The state prices ψj\psi_j represent the prices of Arrow-Debreu securities, which are monetary values and do not necessarily sum to 1. The transformed vector qjq_j represents risk-neutral probabilities, obtained by multiplying each state price by the gross risk-free factor (1+i)(1+i).

Conditions: The market is a one-period finite-state model.; ψj\psi_j are the solved state prices (Arrow-Debreu security prices).; ii is the per-period risk-free interest rate.; qjq_j is defined as qj=(1+i)ψjq_j = (1+i)\psi_j.