The Year 3 forecast is calculated by applying the exponential smoothing formula to the Year 2 actual demand and the Year 2 forecast. The actual demand of 365 is weighted by α=0.4, and the previous forecast of 310 is weighted by (1−α)=0.6, yielding a new forecast of 332.
Conditions: The smoothing constant α is 0.4.; The actual demand for Year 2 (A2) is 365.; The forecast for Year 2 (F2) is 310.
The Year 3 forecast is calculated by applying the exponential smoothing formula to the Year 2 actual demand and the Year 2 forecast. The actual demand of 365 is weighted by α=0.4, and the previous forecast of 310 is weighted by (1−α)=0.6, yielding a new forecast of 332.
Conditions: The smoothing constant α is 0.4.; The actual demand for Year 2 (A2) is 365.; The forecast for Year 2 (F2) is 310.
The Year 2 forecast is 310 because both the actual demand for Year 1 and the initialized forecast for Year 1 are exactly 310. When a weighted average is calculated using two identical values, the result is that same value, regardless of the weights used.
Conditions: The smoothing constant α is fixed at 0.4.; The actual demand for Year 1 (A1) is 310.; The initialized forecast for Year 1 (F1) is 310.
The Year 2 forecast is 310 because both the actual demand for Year 1 and the initialized forecast for Year 1 are exactly 310. When a weighted average is calculated using two identical values, the result is that same value, regardless of the weights used.
Conditions: The smoothing constant α is fixed at 0.4.; The actual demand for Year 1 (A1) is 310.; The initialized forecast for Year 1 (F1) is 310.