Skip to content
START WITH A QUESTION

What would you like to understand?

Find an answer. See the moment it becomes clear. Follow the idea further.

← Concept directory

Answers for “如何根据第 2 年的值计算第 3 年的预测值?”

2 keyword matches

Understanding your question. You can explore the search results below now.

Find a method

↗

The Year 3 forecast is calculated by applying the exponential smoothing formula to the Year 2 actual demand and the Year 2 forecast. The actual demand of 365 is weighted by α=0.4\alpha=0.4, and the previous forecast of 310 is weighted by (1−α)=0.6(1-\alpha)=0.6, yielding a new forecast of 332.

Conditions: The smoothing constant α\alpha is 0.4.; The actual demand for Year 2 (A2A_2) is 365.; The forecast for Year 2 (F2F_2) is 310.

Understand why

↗

The Year 2 forecast is 310 because both the actual demand for Year 1 and the initialized forecast for Year 1 are exactly 310. When a weighted average is calculated using two identical values, the result is that same value, regardless of the weights used.

Conditions: The smoothing constant α\alpha is fixed at 0.4.; The actual demand for Year 1 (A1A_1) is 310.; The initialized forecast for Year 1 (F1F_1) is 310.