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What is the definition of a stationary distribution in a Markov chain?

A stationary distribution (also called an invariant distribution) is a probability distribution row vector π\pi that remains unchanged when multiplied by the transition matrix PP of a Markov chain. This means that if the system starts in this distribution, it will remain in this distribution at all future time steps.

Conditions

  • π\pi is a row vector.
  • PP is the transition matrix of the Markov chain.
  • The elements of π\pi are non-negative and sum to 1.

Reasoning, step by step

  1. Start with the general formula for the distribution at time nn: πn=π0Pn\pi_n = \pi_0 P^n.
  2. Consider the case where the distribution does not change from one time step to the next, i.e., πn+1=πn\pi_{n+1} = \pi_n.
  3. If we let πn=π\pi_n = \pi, then πn+1=πP\pi_{n+1} = \pi P. Setting them equal gives πP=π\pi P = \pi.
  4. A distribution π\pi satisfying πP=π\pi P = \pi is called a stationary or invariant distribution.

Example

The board shows the equation πP=π\pi P = \pi. The speaker says, "there's a special case when the row vector pi when multiplied by this p does not change... we call pi a stationary distribution. Or in other words, we call it an invariant distribution."

Common misconceptions

  • Thinking that a stationary distribution means the system is stuck in one specific state forever; it is a distribution over all states.
  • Confusing the stationary distribution with the initial distribution π0\pi_0.

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