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What is the stationary distribution of the two-state Markov chain with P=[[0.3,0.7],[0.4,0.6]]P=[[0.3,0.7],[0.4,0.6]]?

The stationary distribution is the row vector π=[4/11,7/11]\pi = [4/11, 7/11].

Conditions

  • The transition matrix is P=[0.30.70.40.6]P = \begin{bmatrix} 0.3 & 0.7 \\ 0.4 & 0.6 \end{bmatrix}.
  • π\pi is a row vector satisfying πP=π\pi P = \pi and ∑πi=1\sum \pi_i = 1.

Reasoning, step by step

  1. Set up the balance equations from πP=π\pi P = \pi.
  2. Simplify the equations to find the proportionality 4π(b)=7π(a)4\pi(b) = 7\pi(a).
  3. Use the normalization condition π(a)+π(b)=1\pi(a) + \pi(b) = 1.
  4. Substitute π(b)=7/4π(a)\pi(b) = 7/4 \pi(a) into the normalization equation.
  5. Solve for π(a)=4/11\pi(a) = 4/11.
  6. Solve for π(b)=7/11\pi(b) = 7/11.
  7. Assemble the final stationary distribution vector π=[4/11,7/11]\pi = [4/11, 7/11].

Example

The board writes π=[4/11,7/11]\pi = [4/11, 7/11]. The speaker says, "So our stationary distribution pi is just equal to the row vector 4 over 11 and 7 over 11."

Common misconceptions

  • Writing the stationary distribution as a column vector instead of a row vector.
  • Calculating the proportions incorrectly and getting values that do not sum to 1.

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