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Probability & statistics / English

Introduction to the Negative Binomial Distribution

jbstatistics · YouTube · 7:32

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Contrast fixed-trial binomial counts with the waiting time to a fixed number of successes in the negative binomial model.

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Chapters

0:00Count trials until success r3:00The final trial must succeed6:00A waiting-time convention

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A binomial model fixes the number of trials and counts successes. Here the negative binomial variable instead counts the trials needed to reach r successes, with independent trials and a constant positive success probability p.

To finish on trial x, the first x−1x-1 trials contain exactly r−1r-1 successes, and trial x succeeds. Thus the probability is C(x−1,r−1)pC(x-1,r-1)pʳ(1−p1-p)^(x−rx-r), for integers x≥rx\ge r.

Under the total-trials convention used here, the mean is r/pr/p. With r=3r=3 and p=0.09p=0.09, it is 33⅓ trials. A failures-only convention shifts the variable and its mean by r.

Knowledge cards

01

Count trials until success r

A binomial model fixes the number of trials and counts successes. Here the negative binomial variable instead counts the trials needed to reach r successes, with independent trials and a constant positive success probability p.

02

The final trial must succeed

To finish on trial x, the first x−1x-1 trials contain exactly r−1r-1 successes, and trial x succeeds. Thus the probability is C(x−1,r−1)pC(x-1,r-1)pʳ(1−p1-p)^(x−rx-r), for integers x≥rx\ge r.

03

A waiting-time convention

Under the total-trials convention used here, the mean is r/pr/p. With r=3r=3 and p=0.09p=0.09, it is 33⅓ trials. A failures-only convention shifts the variable and its mean by r.

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  • Binomial distribution ApplicationAt 0:00
    Why this connection?

    A binomial model fixes the number of trials and counts successes. Here the negative binomial variable instead counts the trials needed to reach r successes, with independent trials and a constant positive success probability p. To finish on trial x, the first x−1x-1 trials contain exactly r−1r-1 successes, and trial x succeeds. Thus the probability is C(x−1,r−1)pC(x-1,r-1)pʳ(1−p1-p)^(x−rx-r), for integers x≥rx\ge r. Under the total-trials convention used here, the mean is r/pr/p. With r=3r=3 and p=0.09p=0.09, it is 33⅓ trials. A failures-only convention shifts the variable and its mean by r.